Jacksonville, FL – There are less than 2 months left in hurricane season. Receive daily “Talk about the tropics with Mike” updates * here *.
A rather strange and rare event: September was the 6th consecutive month in Jacksonville with a below average average. time. – something that has not happened this century! The months of June, July and August were humid and humid, helping to maintain daytime temperatures. – in particular – a little lower (yes – it was still hot!) but April, May and September were all drier than average.
But before we get excited or not about climate change, know that the 6 month period is just a snapshot in time. Not, of course, necessarily a long term trend. But that said, far too much hyperbole is targeted at certain weather events. Many times – after weather disasters or unusual “events” (sometimes perceived in relation to reality) – the automatic label is “climate change”. One should realize that in a perfect world, Mother Nature wants everything – including the weather – to be in balance as well. This is not possible, so the only weather constant is change in the form of storms, rain, sun, wind, cold, hot, etc. The atmosphere is in a constant state of chaos. Now let’s be clear: the earth is heating up – the numbers are factual and real. The graph below is from the University of Alabama, Huntsville and shows long-term warming since around the turn of the century with a particularly strong increase since around 2014:
But some statistics will be – and have been – overlooked and / or misinterpreted. The ACE – a measure of the strength of a tropical cyclone + the duration of the storm – is well below the global average but well above the average. for the North Atlantic with former Hurricane Sam pushing the North Atlantic ace to nearly double its average on October 5 (139.5 versus an average of 86.3). At the same time, all other basins in the N hemisphere are below average. except for the North Indian basin. Table below from CSU & Phil Klotzbach:
The number of tornadoes this year is well below average:
Despite all the headlines about wildfires, the number of US acres burned so far is below the 10-year average:
And – finally – the table and information below from the Australian Institute of Marine Science should be interpreted with care as there has been misleading information. recently. First of all, 2021 has been a favorable year for the Great Barrier Reef after several severe bleaching episodes over the past decade. Such a short-term trend does not mean that the Great Reef is out of danger and fully recovered, but it does show the propensity for resilience. if given the opportunity. Key points 2021 according to the institute:
- This report summarizes the status of coral reefs in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) from Long Term Monitoring Program (LTMP) surveys of 127 reefs conducted between August 2020 and April 2021 (reported as “2021”).
- During the 35 years of monitoring by AIMS, reefs in the GBR have shown an ability to recover from disturbances.
- By 2021, a widespread recovery was underway, largely due to the increase in the number of fast-growing Acropora corals.
- The reefs studied have experienced low levels of acute stress over the past 12 months without prolonged high temperatures or major cyclones. The number of thorn-crowned starfish outbreaks on the reefs studied has generally declined; however, ongoing epidemics remain on some reefs in southern GBR.
- Overall, 59 of 127 reefs were moderate (> 10% – 30%) hard coral blanket and 36 reefs had high hard coral cover (> 30% – 50%).
- On the North GBR, The region-wide hard coral cover was moderate and continued to increase to 27% from the most recent low in 2017.
- On the Central GBR Region-wide hard coral cover was moderate and had increased to 26% in 2021.
- Region-wide hard coral coverage on the reefs of the South GBR was high and had increased to 39% by 2021.
- In 2020, most of the reefs studied experienced a build-up of heat stress that produced widespread coral bleaching, but were below thresholds where widespread mortality is expected. In line with this, the 2021 surveys recorded low coral mortality due to the 2020 bleaching event.
- In times of no acute disturbance, most GBR coral reefs demonstrate resilience through the ability to begin recovery. However, reefs in the GBR continue to be exposed to cumulative stressors, and the prognosis for the future disturbance regime is one of increased and more lasting marine heat waves and a greater proportion of severe tropical cyclones. .
That was 5 years ago – October 7, 2016 – when Hurricane Matthew came closest – about 45 miles east of Jax Beach – pounding our beaches and causing widespread blackouts. The hurricane severely damaged the Jax Beach pier which is still under repair today. Matthew was the first cat. 5 in the Atlantic basin since 2007 (“Felix”) & was in Cat. 3 force just off the NE Fl. Coast. A full recap + some personal memories * here * in the “Buresh Blog”.
Before and after Matthew, Vilano beach:
Cat. 5 Sep 30, 2016 – Eastern Caribbean:
October 1 FEMA’s new Risk Rating 2.0 program went into effect, changing the way flood insurance rates are calculated. According to FEMA, more than one million Floridians will see their flood insurance premiums increase next year and most likely for years to come. FEMA’s price overhaul will result in higher prices for the majority of Florida’s 1.7 million policyholders – the most of any state – as well as a decrease for around 20% of contracts, more than 340,000 policyholders. Get information. from FEMA * here * & * here *. According to FEMA:
Aware of the far-reaching economic impacts of COVID-19, the agency has decided to take a phased approach to roll out the new tariffs:
- From October 1, 2021
National Flood Insurance Program policyholders will be able to take advantage of discounts upon policy renewal.
New policies will be subject to the new pricing methodology, which reflects a property’s full rate of risk.
- From April 1, 2022
All remaining policies will be purchased under the new rate plan upon renewal, which will give these policyholders more time to prepare.
October night sky courtesy of Sky and Telescope:
October 9 (all day): Astronomy day, a worldwide celebration, started in 1973, which “brings astronomy to the people”. Stargazing events can be planned by your local astronomy club. More information here and here. Info. for Jacksonville’s own Bryan-Gooding Planetarium at MOSH * here *.
October 9 (twilight): Low in the southwest, the crescent lunar crescent and the brilliant Venus are 2½ ° apart in the head of Scorpio, while Antares is incubating at 6 ° to their left.
October 14 (dusk): The waxing Gibbous Moon, Jupiter, and Saturn form a triangle above the south-southeast horizon after sunset.
October 15 (twilight): Venus is 1½ ° at the top right of Antares, the heart of Scorpio. They remain closed the next two evenings.
21st of October (morning): The orionid meteor shower peaks before dawn. But the Moon, just after its full, seriously hinders visualization.
23 october (dawn): The waning gibbous moon is 4 ° to the left of the Pleiades, to the west-southwest.
25 october (dawn): Mercury appears furthest from the Sun in the sky (18 °), called the greatest western aspect ratio.
29 october (twilight): Venus appears furthest from the Sun in the sky (47 °), called the greatest eastern aspect ratio.
November, 1st (dawn): Mercury and Spica rise together in the east-southeast, at 4 ° from each other. Be quick to catch this sight before dawn hits the sky.
November 7: daylight saving time ends at 2 a.m. for most of the United States and Canada.
November 7 (twilight): The young Moon and Venus are 3½ ° apart, to the left of the Teapot of Sagittarius asterism.
Phases of the moon
New Moon – October 6, 7:05 a.m. EDT
First Quarter – October 12, 11:25 p.m. EDT
Full Moon – October 20, 10:57 a.m. EDT
Final Quarter – October 28, 4:05 p.m. EDT
© 2021 Cox Media Group